Coal prices fluctuate violently, polyester market turmoil, or overdraft ahead of schedule

Recently, the price of polyester raw materials in the chemical fiber industry has plummeted due to power and production restrictions in various places, and due to the violent fluctuation of coal prices for bulk textile raw materials.

The polyester market is cloudy

Recently, the new crown epidemic in Europe has continued to deteriorate, and the market has intensified concerns about the European blockade. Crude oil fell again to make the polyester market worse. On the 18th, crude oil prices began to fall sharply, and the price of WTI crude oil fell to US$78.36/barrel, which was also the first time that WTI crude oil fell below the US$80/barrel mark in nearly three weeks. On the evening of the 20th, the crude oil market plummeted again across the board. WTI crude oil futures closed down $2.47, or 3.15%, at $75.94/barrel, and Brent January crude oil futures closed down $2.35, or 2.89%, at $78.89/barrel.

Since October, driven by the fundamentals of oversupply, the market price of polyester has continued to fall.

On November 17, the price of PTA was 4,936 yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene glycol was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10.49% and 34.38% from the high point in mid-October. Polyester filament has also been declining all the way. According to monitoring, the prices of 150D FDY, 150D POY and 150D DTY are 7980 yuan/ton, 7780 yuan/ton and 9450 yuan/ton respectively, down 1120 yuan/ton and 1220 yuan/ton from mid-October respectively. ton, 1200 yuan / ton, down 12%, 14% and 11%.

The difficulty of destocking in the polyester industry chain increases

At the same time, both the inventory of terminal weaving enterprises and the inventory of polyester filament factories have risen sharply recently, indicating that the difficulty of destocking in the industrial chain has increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials will also be seriously insufficient. At present, orders such as Christmas and "Double Twelve" have been basically completed. At present, polyester terminal enterprises are only producing to meet the rigid demand, and the market lacks enthusiasm for stockpiling. Especially in the context of tightening fiscal policies and superimposing epidemic prevention and control, it is difficult for terminal orders to improve in the near future.

Affected by power constraints and terminal orders, the overall start-up load of the polyester industry is lower than the same period last year. As of November 12, the start-up loads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester filaments, polyester industrial yarns, and polyester staple fiber industries were 84.69%, 74.22%, 77.59%, 63.8%, and 77.21%, respectively.

At present, entering the winter, the terminal weaving industry has reached the peak season for winter equipment and goods, and the start-up load has a seasonal demand for recovery, and with the steady increase in power supply, there is also a certain increase in the start-up load of polyester enterprises. However, the "dual control" of energy consumption in East China continues, and the operating loads of terminal weaving and texturing enterprises are lower than the same period of previous years.

Although the prices of many domestic raw materials have declined to varying degrees at present, many polyester companies are still unable to do anything. Some weaving companies said that the biggest problem facing companies at present is that the market demand continues to be weak, and it is useless to drop the price of raw materials without orders. Judging from the adjustment of the national industrial structure, whether it is the polyester market, the raw material market or the end-users, they are all in a serious surplus stage. We have overdrafted the future market, and ultimately we have to pay for the overdraft.